A Year of Multiple Crises: Russian war against Ukraine, extreme weather events, high prices for energy and fertilizer, food crisis had severe implications for food security and agriculture globally and especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. A Transformation of the food systems is needed.
The Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) is a globally active provider of international cooperation for sustainable development. It has more than 50 years of experience in a wide range of fields.
Looking back at 2022, the year will probably be remembered as one of multiple crises. While the global economy was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was hit by a new series of shocks. By the end of this year, it seems worth reflecting on the consequences and policy responses as well as daring an outlook into 2023.
A food crisis that already started before the war
In a situation where prices for food and agricultural goods were already high, Russia started its war against Ukraine in early 2022. Analysis from renewed research institutions such as the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and AKADEMIYA2063 have shown that this war has amplified the increase in agricultural prices and inflationary pressures in the first half of 2022 and contributed to high volatility throughout the year. Although, the war has not caused the current food and fertilizer crises and cannot be held solely accountable for it, it augmented its effects. The increase in international prices for agricultural goods already started in 2020 and continued throughout 2021. Besides supply chain disruptions due to the Covid-19 pandemic, these price increases were driven by the impact of climate change as well as by political decisions of individual countries such as export restrictions, of land demand for biofuel and animal fodder production. Although signs of the current food crises started to appear already in these years, they caught the world by surprise and lead to severe price shocks.
Starting from an already high price levels, international indices that compare food prices over the year, such es the FAO Food Price Index, reached all-time highs for food products in the months March and April. This indicates the importance of Ukraine and Russia as exporters of basic food products such as wheat, maize, and vegetable oil for the international markets. It also reveals that international trade in important staple foods is highly concentrated on few big players, who secure the supply for many countries worldwide. Political reactions such as export restrictions on food products from both importing as well as exporting countries worsened the situation. Some importing countries especially in the Maghreb and Near East are highly dependent on imports of these products which constitute their main diet.
Agricultural prices throughout the year 2022 reacted very sensitively to any news of additional crises such as drought or flooding in any part of the world leading. At the end of 2022, international prices for food have decreased but remain on a very high level compared to previous years. Especially with the signature of the Black Sea Grain Initiative a sudden decrease of food prices could be seen. However, food inflation worsened over the year and stocks for many basic staple foods decreased compared to previous years according to IFPRI. IFPRI scientists also estimate that Latin American Countries such as Argentina or Paraguay might have the potential to make up for some of the lost exports from Russia and Ukraine. Here it would be necessary to put the policies in place to foster investment and export.
Fertilizer and energy prices decrease but remain high
Fertilizer as well as energy prices have decreased as well but are still significantly above pre-war levels. It is very difficult to increase the supply for especially these goods on short-term, since production and export are limited to a certain group of producer countries such as Russia, Belarus, or China for fertilizers. Especially low-income countries could suffer from a longer shortage in fertilizer supply and/or high prices for fertilizers. Scientists from AKADEMIYA2063 argue that a low affordability of fertilizers might lead to a reduction in the use of nutrients by especially smallholder farmers.
The African continent already now only uses far less fertilizer for its cultivations as compared to other regions. A further reduction could impact local yields and thus food security significantly.
Using alternative sources of nutrients, such as compost, is an option but are not available on a big scale everywhere and would not compensate directly and fully. However, some fertilizer producing countries such as Nigeria or Morocco might benefit from the current situation and extend their market shares. These countries benefit from natural resources necessary for a competitive fertilizer production and do already have existing productions plants.
An end of the war will not solve the crisis from one day to another – so what are the lessons learnt
Looking at the current situation, an end of the war against Ukraine would not solve the current food crisis. The scientists of IFPRI and AKADEMIYA2063 predict that 18 months will be necessary for markets to adjust after the start of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Thus, it is most likely that prices for food, fertilizer and energy will remain on a high and volatile level and react quickly to extreme weather events or other shocks in 2023. Trade has played a critical role in helping markets to adjust and should remain open. Regulatory and administrative barriers that hinder transborder trade flows should be removed.
Regional trade is crucial to support local food security and resilience especially in dealing with local shocks and seasonal shortages.
For the production side, high prices and limited affordability of fertilizers are predicted to cause challenges to producers worldwide until 2024 and will probably contribute to a deteriorating food security situation especially in low-income countries. It might be necessary to secure the fertilizer supply of the most vulnerable countries and find mechanisms to finance fertilizer for smallholder farmers who have challenges to pre-finance these inputs. At the same time countries and production systems should reduce their dependency on imported synthetic fertilizers as much as possible by combining different production strategies for resilient food systems.
The need of evidence and data
As the current situation of multiple crises is complex and effects vary among countries, scientists and practitioners agree there is no ‘one size fits all’ or blueprint solution. Policy response should be evidence-based. However, decision-makers in many countries must deal with a lack of agricultural and economic data on e.g., local production and trade and can thus hardly estimate or predict the concrete implications of the crises.
It is of critical importance to improve the availability and quality of data from macro to household level to support evidence-based decision making in partner countries.
Solutions should involve short-term emergency aid were needed but at the same time invest in middle- to long-term transformation of the trade and agri-food systems to find a balance between trade and own productivity to achieve resilience against shocks that might occur more frequently in the future. Coherent and effective policy response in a crisis requires strong governance fundamentals. A lack thereof can be considered an additional obstacle in fighting the crisis.
The necessary transformation of the food and agricultural systems
While many countries are suffering from high prices and limited availability of certain goods, there are also winners, who might benefit from the geopolitical changes occurring. Especially countries with resources such as natural oil and gas or raw materials to produce fertilizer, among them Nigeria and Ghana, see windows of opportunity to attract new investments and save market shares. However, it is critical not to create another dependency based on the exploitation of natural fossil resources but invest strategically in sustainable green solutions. For 2023, the experts agree that it will be necessary to overcome the mode of crisis, in which governments and development partners are solely reacting and move towards creating forward strategies for future developments. In conclusion, they need to take into consideration the necessary transformation of food and agricultural systems.
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A study by the World Bank predicts that millions of people in sub-Saharan Africa will have to leave their homelands because of climate change. We have spoken with one of the authors
Nutrition experts from all over the world are coming together in Rome. They are not only distilling 2000 ideas to improve food systems - they are also preparing for the big UN summit in New York in September. An interview.
Journalist Jan Rübel spoke with Joao Campari ahead of the UNFSS Pre-Summit. The Chair of Action Track 3 highlights key challenges in transforming existing food systems towards sustainable production and shares his expectations for the Summit.
A contribution by Dr. Karin Gaesing and Prof. Dr. Frank Bliss (INEF)
Especially in densely populated areas, land pressure leads to overexploitation of available land and a lack of conservation measures. The West African country of Benin, with heavily depleted soils in many places, is no exception.
Interview with Paul Newnham, Director of the SDG 2 Advocacy Hub.
The UN Food Systems pre-Summit in Rome dealt with transforming the ways of our nutrition. How do you bring that to a broad public? Questions to Paul Newnham, the Director of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 Advocacy Hub.
Interview with Martina Fleckenstein (WWF), Michael Kühn (WHH) and Christel Weller-Molongua (GIZ)
After the summit means pre-summit: It was the first time that the United Nations held a summit on food systems. Martina Fleckenstein, Michael Kühn and Christel Weller-Molongua reviewed the situation in this joint interview.
A Contribution by Emile Frison and Nick Jacobs (IPES-Food)
While having failed to solve the hunger problem, industrial agriculture appears to be causing additional ones both in environmental and health terms. Emile Frison and Nick Jacobs call for a transformation.
Fish is important for combating malnutrition and undernourishment. But it is not only notable for its nutritional value, but also secures the livelihoods and employment for 600 million people worldwide.
Three quarters of the world's population do not have secure land rights, which hinders investment and innovation. The project "Improvement of Livelihood and Food Security" supports smallholder farmers in acquiring land.
Vertically growing plants, magnetic cotton. Hairy leftovers fertilizing fields, tractors running on algae? These six innovations could lead agriculture’s next Green Revolution!
Climate change already affects the daily lives of people in the Global South. What are the challenges they face and what do these imply for negotiations at the climate conference in Glasgow?
A Contribution by the Forestry Research Institute Nigeria
The 'Domestication of Small Monogastric and Ruminant Animals' (DSMR) project led by a Nigerian research institute works with local communities to solve the bushmeat crisis.
In the run-up to the G7 summit, experts from politics and civil society discussed sustainable and more effective options for action by the G7 states to combat hunger.
The G7 is responding to the worsening global hunger crisis by mobilizing an additional $4.5 billion for this year alone. A key milestone for this in the run-up was the international conference on global food security "Uniting for Global Food Security".
Healthy, productive soils are a prerequisite for global food security – one of the priorities of German development cooperation. State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth on Germany’s efforts to support sustainable land management and why the VGGT are more important than ever today.
How can we reach more people with successful approaches to food security? In Berlin, an international conference organized by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationaler Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) addressed this issue.
Whether it's banana bread made from brown bananas, conscious shopping plans or foodsharing, we give you five tips on how to reduce your everyday food waste.
Why are short- and long-term responses important to address current and future global crises? Sebastian Lesch, Head of the Agriculture Division at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), provides answers to these and other questions in an interview with the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development (GDPRD) and explains how much Germany welcomes all donors pulling together and acting in concert.
How to maintain functioning food markets in global food supply chains in the face of vulnerability and disruption? Markets that support local and territorial food systems are part of the solution. Thomas Forster presents proposals for these markets to cope with future shocks.
The Global Alliance for Food Security (GAFS), jointly launched by the German G7 Presidency and the World Bank, released the Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard during COP27: A Rapid Response Tool for Coordinating Global Action for Food Security.
Development cooperation needs to place good governance and a sustainable agri-food systems transformation at its center: After the first 100 days in office have passed, Dirk Meyer from the German Development Ministry (BMZ) spells out the goals, guidelines and priorities of the Ministry’s new lead.
A Contribution of the 'Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains' (INA)
Fair Trade organisations and the Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains (INA) have launched the #ichwillfair campaign during COP26 to highlight the link between global supply chains and climate change.
New insights on trade and value addition in the rice sector in West Africa
Low import tariffs, smuggling activities, unpredictable tax exemptions and weak enforcement of food safety standards: The potential of local rice value chains is undermined in West African countries.
Four interviews kick off the relaunch under the new name „Food4Transformation“, asking the same questions from different perspectives. Mareike Haase and Stig Tanzmann from Brot für die Welt explain why the right to food, inclusivity, agroecology and food sovereignty are the central levers for a successful transformation.
A Contribution by Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem
High agricultural prices affect developed and developing countries alike, but the problem is aggravated for the latter through the lack of or inadequate resilience measures. Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem, AKADEMIYA2063, and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem, University of Hohenheim, explain what can be done to mitigate the negative effects on food security.
The consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have enabled many countries to open up new export markets for their agricultural goods. However, smallholder farms have been largely left out. Drawing on his experience in India, our author gives a brief overview of how this can be changed.
A contribution by the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development
Two years following the UN Food Systems Summit, the Global Donor Platform for Rural Development and the Shamba Centre for Food & Climate hosted an official side event at the UNFSS+2. The event explored how public donors can increase the impact of their investments.
Iraq suffered many years of war, sanctions and economic crises. However, Ally-Raza Qureshi from the World Food Programme in Iraq sees progress. But now the effects of climate change are becoming apparent in the country. What is to be done?
In a world facing crises – from pandemics, armed conflicts, and climate change – how do we ensure everyone has enough food within planetary boundaries? A new podcast by Food4Transformation discover solutions talking to government officials, scientists, NGOs and farmers around the world.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, not all financial institutions (FIs) have access to knowledge about how to implement processes to enhance rural financial inclusion. The pan-African Community of Practice (CoP) plays a pivotal role in supporting these institutions along this transformative journey.
How can agriculture engage more young people in rural areas? Advocacy and education campaigns can play an important role here. Simeon Kambalame, Timveni Child and Youth Media Organisation, has launched such a campaign in Malawi.
Women and girls in poorer countries are affected in particular ways by the multiple crises the world is currently facing. Uncovering the linkages between gender, resilience and food security, experts from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) look at ways to support women and girls’ capacity to respond to crises.
Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Podcast of the Federal Government
At the start of World Food Week around World Food Day on 16 October, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that the fight against global hunger will only be successful with international responsibility and solidarity (german only).
From measures to promote biodiversity in Germany to more sustainable cocoa cultivation methods in Ecuador: WWF works at many different levels. At the Green Week, it will be demonstrated just how multifaceted nature conservation work is and what role each individual's decision plays.
The Agriculture and Food Security Cluster of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH in Zambia shows how synergies among different projects and partner organisations can help people to eat healthier, diversified food. A delegation of the Bonn based Division of Agriculture and Rural Development learned this in a field visit in the Eastern Province of the Southern African country.
Felix Phiri has been Head of the Department of Nutrition, HIV and AIDS at the Ministry of Health in Malawi for almost 20 years. A conversation about constants and change.
In Himachal Pradesh, India, natural disasters are becoming more frequent and climatic conditions are changing – with negative consequences for apple production and farmers' livelihoods. Holistic and multidimensional innovation bundles are required for the entire value chain in order to make the food system more resilient in the future.
A Contribution by Emmanuel Atamba & Larissa Stiem-Bhatia
Drawing on dialogues with experts in Kenya, TMG Research releases its latest policy brief highlighting the critical need to strengthen coordination mechanisms in food systems governance. Emmanuel Atamba and Larissa Stiem-Bhatia from TMG Research summarize the results.
Diversifying our protein supply to include plant-based foods and cultivated meat can be a game-changer for climate mitigation and climate adaptation, especially in the countries of the Global South. However, a great deal of research is still required to capitalise on this potential. And political support, as Ivo Rzegotta, Good Food Institute, demonstrates.
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