Our Food Systems are in Urgent Need of Crisis-Proofing: what needs to be done

Based on a scientific study by TMG Think Tank, the authors highlight various challenges in the fight against the hunger crisis. The findings show that climate change, conflict and covid-19 are increasing food and energy prices.

 

© GIZ, Tomas Imo (Photothek.net), 2018

By Alexander Müller

Alexander Müller

Alexander Müller, a graduate sociologist, is the head of a global study of the UN Environment Program on "The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity for Agriculture and Food" and CEO of "TMG - Töpfer, Müller, Gaßner GmbH, ThinkTankforSustainabilty".

All contributions

By Dr Elena Lazutkaite

Dr Elena Lazutkaitė is an animal scientist and interdisciplinary researcher focusing on food and agriculture, transboundary pests and resilience, and environmental sustainability.

All contributions

By Dr Adam Prakash

Dr Adam Prakash is a TMG research associate, whose work explores the quantitative links between climate change and agriculture and how emerging technologies can de-risk food systems.

All contributions

TMG – ThinkTankforSustainabilty

GIZ
Ich bin ein Alternativtext
International food prices still high and volatile. ©FAO, 2022

The reliability of international markets to deliver affordable food to almost 2 billion vulnerable people who depend on imports of staples to meet their basic dietary needs is once again called into question. Lessons of the crisis episodes in the past two decades, those of 2006-09 and 2010-2014, have not been heeded. The mantra of the only recognised multilateral governance institution, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) of the G20, “to keep markets well-supplied and free-flowing” was never sufficient and the fragility of our food systems is becoming increasingly exposed.

 

With the necessary political will, the G7 could make a significant contribution to prevent devastating hunger and the ensuing instability in a growing number of regions, which were already vulnerable. Yet commitments are not always followed by deeds. The global response today, as in past crises, has been myopic. The laissez faire approach of ensuring efficient global market functioning and free of export restrictions (though India still persists with its export ban on wheat), while hoping the world will farm its way out of trouble, carries with it significant risks, especially when the climate crisis is wreaking havoc today and will likely do so tomorrow.

 

The 4Cs

The climate crisis is revealing just how destructive its effects can be even at the current rate of warming at 1.2°C with drought and heat stress afflicting crops and livestock in the major breadbaskets of the world, especially the US, China, Europe and India. The four Cs, Covid-19, Conflict and Climate change, have sent the Cost of living to an unprecedented high – and are conspiring to put the world at a cusp of the most catastrophic food crisis in 50 years. While international food prices are falling back to pre-war levels, they are still substantially higher than a year ago.

 

Ich bin ein Alternativtext
Soaring natural gas prices drive urea fertiliser quotations to new heights. ©Worldbank, 2022

With soaring inflation coupled with a spiralling US Dollar (the choice currency of global trade), a new problem is emerging, in that purchasing power measured by real exchange rates is collapsing, particularly in poorer countries. Added to their plight is the lack of foreign exchange to import the most basic of all necessities – food. While food is still available in abundance, availability seldomly translates into access to affordable food.

 

Worst yet to come?

While we may escape the worst in 2022, next year we could be at the crossroads. The reason being is that natural gas quotations continue to soar, propelling the price of urea to the point that global farmers will be priced out of the market. Even urea manufactures have either begun to close or have slashed capacity.  At current natural gas prices, production of this fertilizer is uneconomical. As a consequence, we can only expect a massive reduction in the next global harvest.

 

How can we avert a catastrophic food crisis from transpiring?

Moratoria should be placed on feeding the biofuel and livestock sectors (over one billion tonnes of grains are being diverted from food to feed and energy markets. Profits of oil companies are also under scrutiny with the UN Secretary General’s plea to (windfall) tax “immoral” and “excessive oil and gas profits.” The same is justifiable for the handful of food-vested corporations that have monopolised the global food system and are always the winners in times of crisis.  Just four enterprises have as much as a 90 percent controlling stake in the world’s entire grain trade, with Cargill Inc. recently reporting record earnings of USD 165 billion in 2022. A windfall tax on their profits could help finance food deliveries to the poor.

 

What about the longer term?

Reliance on a few exporting countries and commercial monopolism in trade for food, energy and fertilizer, poses exceptional and unacceptable risks and is tantamount to holding world food security to ransom. We must decouple our energy-hungry food systems from fossil-fuels (over seven units of fossil fuels to produce just one unit of food in equivalent energy terms, and what is more, the global fossil fuel sector is perversely subsidised to the tune of almost US$ 7 trillion). Repurposing a fraction of these subsidies to decarbonise our food systems, is a critical step towards enabling the much-needed transformation of our food systems. Incentivizing inexpensive, readily available, and proven technologies to boost soil health, improves the availability of nutritious food and strengthens climate resilience. In this regard, investment in renewables and  bio-fertilizers is an imperative, and integral to the circular economy, as well as being increasingly important for planetary health.

 

Finally, we need to reassess our food systems, by evaluating their total impact – or true costs – on the environment and human health.

 

Revealing true costs would bring much needed progress: concerted action to reduce food waste, a far more productive, nutritionally diverse, and sustainable food sector that respects our natural capital, and a sense of realism towards climate mitigation.

 

The full study can be found here on the TMG Think Tank website.

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In western Africa a new middle class is emerging. Their consumer behaviour is determining the demand for products – home-produced and imported goods, on the internet or at the village market. The people of Ivory Coast in particular are looking to the future with optimism.

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(c) Christoph Püschner/Zeitenspiegel

Slaves do not produce quality

By Tilman Wörtz

Every child in Germany knows Ritter Sport – but most of the children harvesting cocoa on western African plantations have never even eaten chocolate. Can a chocolate manufacturer change the world? Conversation with Alfred Ritter about the power and powerlessness of a businessman.

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Reference values: A building block on the road to social equality

A contribution by Friederieke Martin (GIZ)

A quick and cost-effective method calculates living wages and incomes for many different countries. The GIZ together with Fairtrade International and Richard and Martha Anker have developed a tool that companies can use to easily analyse income and wage gaps.

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Quinoa could have a huge potential in Central Asia, where the Aral Sea Basin has been especially hard-hit by salinisation.

Supermarket Scorecard on Human Rights

A contribution by Dr. Franziska Humbert (Oxfam)

Oxfam’s supermarket scorecard, which is in its third year, shows one thing in particular - it works! Supermarkets can change their business policies and focus more on the rights of those people around the world who plant and harvest food. However, this does not happen without pressure. 

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(c) Christoph Pueschner/Zeitenspiegel

From start to finish: a vision of interconnectivity

A contribution by Tanja Reith

At the moment, the agricultural industries of African countries exist in relative isolation. Imagine peasant farmers digitally connected to the value chains of the global food industry. How could this happen? A guidebook.

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Ms Rudloff, what are the benefits of a supply chain law?

By Jan Rübel

The Federal Government is fine-tuning a law that would require companies to ensure human rights – a supply chain law. What are the consequences for the agricultural sector? Dr Bettina Rudloff from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) discusses linking policy fields with added value.

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Bitter fruit

A contribution by Frank Brunner

Why aren’t bars of chocolate made where cocoa is grown? Author Frank Brunner analyses the industry’s fragile value chain from the plantation to the supermarket

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Freed from trade? Towards a fairer EU Trade Agenda

A contribution by Dr. Jan Orbie (University Gent)

‘Fair’ and ‘sustainable’ are key words in Germany’s EU Council Presidency. At the same time, Germany pursues ‘modernization’ of the WTO and ‘rapid progress’ on free trade agreements. Are these goals really compatible? Can we be concerned about fairness and sustainability while continuing with ‘business as usual’?

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Developing countries hit doubly hard by coronavirus

A contribution by Gunter Beger (BMZ)

In most African countries, the infection COVID-19 is likely to trigger a combined health and food crisis. This means: In order to cope with this unprecedented crisis, consistently aligning our policies to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is more important than ever, our author maintains.

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Hier steht eine Bildbeschreibung

Statement from GAFSP Co-Chairs: GAFSP and COVID-19 Pandemic

A contribution by GAFSP

COVID-19 has unprecedented effects on the world. As always, the most vulnerable are the hardest hit, both at home and - especially - abroad. A joint appeal by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Development and Cooperation (BMZ) and the Department for International Development (DFID).

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(c) Christoph Pueschner/Zeitenspiegel

Can this end world hunger?

A report by Stig Tanzmann

Time to dig deeper: We can only benefit from technical progress if we have a solid legal framework for everybody. But so far, none is in sight - in many countries. Instead, international corporations grow ever more powerful.

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(c) Privat

The 'Grey Gold'

A contribution by Maria Schmidt (GIZ)

The Cashew Council is the first international organisation for a raw material stemming from Africa. The industry promises to make progress in processing and refining cashew nuts - and answers to climate change

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(c) Privat

Borderless food security

A contribution by Christine Wieck

Enabling smallholders to trade across regions and borders promotes food security and economic growth. Although everyone is calling for exactly that, implementation is still difficult

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“They said: You can do it”

A contribution by Bread for the World

As President of the IABM cooperative in Muhanga, Alphonsine Mukankusi is not simply focused on the figures. She has learned how to deal with people and how to take on responsibility. At the same time, her work helps her to come to terms with the past

 

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Actual Analysis: The locusts came with the crises

A report by Bettina Rudloff and Annette Weber (SWP)

The Corona-Virus exacerbates existing crises through conflict, climate, hunger and locusts in East Africa and the Horn of Africa. What needs to be done in these regions? To face these challenges for many countries, all of these crises need to be captured in their regional context.

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No rainforest for our consumption

A contribution by Jenny Walther-Thoß (WWF)

In the tropics rainforests are still being felled for the production of palm oil, meat and furniture. It is high time to act. Proposals are on the table.

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Successful Blueprints for African Agriculture

A Contribution by GIZ

At the 8th German-African Agribusiness Forum (GAAF) representatives from business and politics discussed successful investment models to improve living conditions in Africa.

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David versus Goliath: Consequences of mainstream agricultural export commodities and niche products

An Artikel by the Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains (INA)

A study published by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) examines the differences between globally traded agricultural commodities and domestic niche products in terms of economic, environmental and social impact on the region of origin. The results provide new evidence to make supply chains more sustainable.  

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COVID-19 and Rising Food Prices: What’s Really Happening?

A Contribution by IFPRI

Taking a look at the data (as of February 11th 2022) what the current price hike means for world hunger and what can be done to prevent from another food crisis.

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Côte d’Ivoire: Sweet Temptation without a Bitter Taste

A Story by GIZ

Until Easter 2022, GIZ publishes a new episode every fortnight introducing people who are committed to fair and sustainable cocoa in Côte d'Ivoire and Germany.

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Fair Trade and Climate Justice: Everything is Conntected

A Contribution of the 'Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains' (INA)

Fair Trade organisations and the Initiative for Sustainable Agricultural Supply Chains (INA) have launched the #ichwillfair campaign during COP26 to highlight the link between global supply chains and climate change.

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The fight against illegal fishing

A Report

The oceans are important for our food supply, but they are overfished. To halt this trend the global community is now taking action against illegal fishing. Journalist Jan Rübel spoke with Francesco Marí, a specialist for world food, agricultural trade and maritime policy at "Brot für die Welt," and others.

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Agricultural prices and food security – a complex relationship

A Contribution by Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem

High agricultural prices affect developed and developing countries alike, but the problem is aggravated for the latter through the lack of or inadequate resilience measures. Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem, AKADEMIYA2063, and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem, University of Hohenheim, explain what can be done to mitigate the negative effects on food security.

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The Principle of Sharing

A contribution by gebana

gebana, a Swiss fair trade company, follows the principle of "sharing" with its corporate philosophy: farming families in the Global South participate directly in the sales of their online shop. Caroline Schaar, Marketing at gebana, explains the company's approach.

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Earth’s well, all’s well!

A Contribution by Fairtrade Germany

With the annual topic "Earth’s well, all’s well!", Fairtrade Germany is focusing on the concept of agroecology at all levels - and is thus taking the next step towards achieving greater global sustainability. At the Green Week trade fair, Fairtrade Germany will show how this can be achieved taking the cocoa supply chain as an example.

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