Building Better Resilience to Transboundary Threats

Climate change fuels outbreaks of the world’s most destructive migratory pest. TMG argues for a paradigm shift in handling transboundary crises such as desert locusts that places early warning and action systems at its centre.

Locust plague in Isiolo County, Kenya. Some swarms reach the size of small countries. © FAO 2022

By TMG – ThinkTankforSustainabilty

The Töpfer Müller Gaßner GmbH (TMG) as a "Think Tank for Sustainability" supports the implementation of sustainable development targets and the Paris Climate Agreement.

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‘The Horn of Africa is facing the worst desert locust crisis in over 25 years, and the most serious in 70 years for Kenya. The current situation […] is set to become a regional plague […] which represents an unprecedented threat to food security and livelihoods in the region and could lead to further suffering, displacement and potential conflict.’ Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2021)

 

This FAO statement may have been regarded as alarmist at the time it was published. However, there is widespread consensus that desert locust outbreaks, and for that matter, other transboundary pest threats, will be much more common with a rapidly changing climate. They are expected not only to be more frequent, but more intensified and potentially transcending to other regions. Researchers suggest that global warming already had influenced this outbreak. The roots of the ongoing upsurge lie in unusually high temperatures in the Indian Ocean and consequently the Arabian Peninsula being struck by multiple severe cyclones between 2018 and 2019. When cyclone Mekunu hit the Arab peninsula in May 2018, it filled a vast desert in Saudi Arabia – the Rub al Khali, also known as the ‘Empty Quarter’ – with freshwater lakes and provided desert locusts with optimal breeding ground. Uncontrolled generations of breeding ultimately led to swarms the size of Luxembourg witnessed in Kenya.

 

Increasing episodes of drought and heat stress due to climate change are already placing smallholders at risk.

 

Transboundary pest outbreaks could be the near-term tipping point for the devastation of rural livelihoods, population displacement and potential conflict.

 

The Need for Early Action

The last major desert locust incursion happened in West Africa almost two decades ago. Unfortunately, such long ‘recession’ phases result in unpreparedness to swiftly respond to an unfolding crisis. This has been reflected in shortcomings of the international governance mechanism to enact upsurge prevention measures, including the lack of early action (despite huge advances in technology in early warning systems), a lack of communication and scant intra-regional coordination, forcing afflicted countries to ‘go it alone’. When the full-blown crisis materialised, countries had no option but to resort to a last line of defence. This meant unleashing unparalleled quantities of highly toxic pesticides (organophosphates) into the already fragile environment, potentially wiping-out biodiversity and ecosystems and contaminating water and land resources, not forgetting the risks to human health posed by nerve agents – the active ingredient in the chemical pesticides applied.

 

Learning the Lessons

TMG Research has just released a scoping paper on the current desert locust crisis, providing an objective enquiry into all of the dimensions of the crisis. These include its origins and impacts as well as the conclusions stemming from independent evaluations of the responsiveness and governance of early warning systems, which analysed the communication and coordination of countries’ responses to the crisis. In light of this evidence, the scoping paper advocates a paradigm shift – a new mindset – for handling locust crises and other transboundary threats, given that the decades-old status quo model has failed to demonstrate readiness and early action.

 

The Three Pillars of Resilience, Digitalization, and Governance

An important step in changing mindsets is to expose the ‘true costs’ of the current desert locust plague: Not just the fiscal costs of pesticide interventions, but also the prohibitive costs to the environment and human health caused by such harmful pesticides.

 

This is about making the invisible costs visible.

 

Once monetised, a compelling case can be presented to actors of the multilateral system to create better global governance and invest in the underpinning early warning, prevention and control systems. The aim is that harmful pesticides (especially organophosphates such as chlorpyrifos, which is a potential persistent organic pollutant, also referred to as a ‘forever chemical’) would eventually be relegated to redundancy.

 

A prerequisite for upsurge prevention is the development of the best possible early warning and early action system.

 

In the case of desert locusts, a system could harvest available data from existing sources (improved satellite data, weather intelligence systems) that would then be fed to machine learning algorithms to help predict and destroy breeding grounds.

 

Ich bin ein Alternativtext
Artist’s impression of Sentinel-3, a part of the Copernicus Earth observation series of satellites. Satellite data constitutes a tool in effective early warning systems.

It could further be supported by innovative technology such as drones fitted with soil-penetrating sensors to identify egg pods and subsequently deploy robotics to excavate the breeding sites. These processes would all be implemented under the auspices of early action and avoidance of the use of highly toxic pesticides.

 

Such an early warning and action system necessitates a new type of global governance model, including forming international public private partnerships (PPPs) with service providers such as research institutions responsible for technological innovation and digitalization. There already exists a class of ‘impact investors’ – Environmental, Social and Government actors– who invest in global public goods for incentives that do not necessarily concern market returns. These partnerships are to be realized with the objective of safeguarding global public goods towards building better resilience. The global governance model would foster rapid communication, coordination and action between countries to thwart the risk of outbreak.

 

Moving Forward

 

The ongoing upsurge shows that it is more than necessary to put emphasis on the much-needed political will towards establishing a well-functioning early warning system and early action able to integrate the challenges of climate change, bring resilience into the picture and define the needed actions jointly with all stakeholders. Such endeavor can have the potential to optimize crisis prevention and management systems, so that the world is better resilient towards future outbreaks of locusts and other transboundary pests.

 

Written by Dr Adam Prakash and Dr Elena Lazutkaite, this article first appeared as blog post on the TMG homepage. Read the full publication by accessing ‘A Scoping Paper on the Ongoing Desert Locust Crisis 2019–2021+’. For more information on TMG’s actions on desert locusts, please visit their project page.

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Podcast: Fighting world hunger together

Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Podcast of the Federal Government

At the start of World Food Week around World Food Day on 16 October, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that the fight against global hunger will only be successful with international responsibility and solidarity (german only).

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Can we democratize data in the age of digital extraction?

A contribution by Clare Crowe Pettersson & Lena Bassermann

The United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS) recently adopted new policy guidelines on the use of data and digital technologies in the context of food security and nutrition. What comes next?

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„You must be multisectoral in your thinking”

Interview with Adriano Campolina (FAO)

For years, place-based approaches to development have been considered important features in development cooperation, at the BMZ and in FAO. Both organisations are aiming at advancing these approaches: an interview with Adriano Campolina from the FAO on territorial and landscape perspectives.

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(c) GIZ

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES FOR MORE SOIL CONSERVATION

With the help of sustainable farming methods, soils can be preserved and made fertile again. The investment required is also worthwhile from a financial perspective.

A project of GIZ

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Resilience in times of crisis

Yemen is currently experiencing one of the worst disasters, due to war, hunger and disease outbreaks. The GIZ is locally engaged to improve the nutrition and resilience of Yemenites.

A project of GIZ

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© GIZ

One Health – What we are learning from the Corona crisis

A contribution by Dr. May Hokan and Dr. Arnulf Köhncke (WWF)

Due to the coronavirus crisis, the connection between human and animal health has gained new attention. Politicians and scientists are joining forces to propagate the solution: One Health. But what is behind the concept? And can it also guarantee food security for all people worldwide?

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Frank Schultze / Agentur_ZS

Visions in agriculture

Video by Frank Schultze and Jan Rübel

At the beginning of December 2018, AGRA's board of directors met in Berlin. The "Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa" ​​panel discussed the next steps in their policy of modernizing agriculture. How to go on in the next ten years? One question - many answers from experts.

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Success story allotment garden: Food supply and women's empowerment

A contribution by Nadine Babatounde and Anne Floquet (MISEREOR)

To prevent malnutrition among young children and strengthen the role of women in their communities, Misereor, together with the local non-governmental organisation CEBEDES, is implementing a programme on integrated home gardens in Benin - a series of pictures.

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Not waiting for a savior

An article by Lidet Tadesse

While Africa is the least affected region by Covid-19 so far, the number of confirmed cases and deaths on the continent is quickly rising. Despite the challenges many African countries continue to face, the African response to the coronavirus pandemic displays innovation and ingenuity.

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A partnership to fight hunger

A contribution by GAFSP

The Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) was launched by the G20 countries in 2010 in response to the 2008-09 food price crisis to increase both public and private investment in agriculture. An overview of the programme's approach, results and impact.

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Good health is impossible without healthy food

A contribution by Heino von Meyer

Corona makes it even more difficult to achieve a world without hunger by 2030. So that this perspective does not get out of sight, Germany must play a stronger role internationally - a summary of the Strategic Advisory Group of SEWOH.

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Land Rights, Gender and Soil Fertility in Benin

A contribution by Dr. Karin Gaesing and Prof. Dr. Frank Bliss (INEF)

Especially in densely populated areas, land pressure leads to overexploitation of available land and a lack of conservation measures. The West African country of Benin, with heavily depleted soils in many places, is no exception.

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UNFSS Pre-Summit: What did it achieve?

Interview with Martina Fleckenstein (WWF), Michael Kühn (WHH) and Christel Weller-Molongua (GIZ)

After the summit means pre-summit: It was the first time that the United Nations held a summit on food systems. Martina Fleckenstein, Michael Kühn and Christel Weller-Molongua reviewed the situation in this joint interview.

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How can the private sector prevent food loss and waste?

An interview with David Brand (GIZ)

From a circular food system in Rwanda to functioning cooled transports in Kenya: The lab of tomorrow addresses development challenges such as preventing food loss and waste

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Food System Transformation Starts and Ends with Diversity

A Contribution by Emile Frison and Nick Jacobs (IPES-Food)

While having failed to solve the hunger problem, industrial agriculture appears to be causing additional ones both in environmental and health terms. Emile Frison and Nick Jacobs call for a transformation.

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5 Questions for Jann Lay: What is Corona doing to the economy?

Interview with Jann Lay (GIGA)

The Corona pandemic is hitting economies around the world very hard - but developments in African countries are quite diverse. There are different speeds, resiliences and vulnerabilities. What are the reasons for this? Apl. Prof. Jann Lay of the GIGA Institute provides answers.

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Agricultural prices and food security – a complex relationship

A Contribution by Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem

High agricultural prices affect developed and developing countries alike, but the problem is aggravated for the latter through the lack of or inadequate resilience measures. Dr. Fatima Olanike Kareem, AKADEMIYA2063, and Dr. Olayinka Idowu Kareem, University of Hohenheim, explain what can be done to mitigate the negative effects on food security.

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What is needed for a long-term fertiliser strategy?

A contribution by Michael Brüntrup

The world is currently experiencing a historic food crisis. High fertiliser prices are part of the problem. In addition to the necessary short-term aid measures, the crisis ought to be made use of to develop and implement longer-term fertiliser strategies for sustainable, in particular smallholder increases in production in the Global South.

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Gender Justice – a Precondition for Resilience

A contribution by IFPRI

Women and girls in poorer countries are affected in particular ways by the multiple crises the world is currently facing. Uncovering the linkages between gender, resilience and food security, experts from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) look at ways to support women and girls’ capacity to respond to crises.

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The Power of the Urban

An Interview by Jan Rübel

Cities play an important role in the transformation of food systems. But what exactly are the potentials and challenges? A three-way discussion between Ruth Okowa (Gain), Delphine Larrousse (World Vegetable Center) and Conrad Graf von Hoyos (GIZ).

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